Full trilogy analysis, both fighter's path to Victory, links to the fights, and who Sgt. Pepper pick's to win round 3... UFC 264 Main Event Poll.... Scroll to the bottom to vote!
THE TRILOGY
A turning point in the post-Khabib Lightweight Division, The King of Dublin returns to Las Vegas, Nevada to avenge the first knock out loss of his career.
Conor "the Notorious" McGregor (22-5) is set to square off with Dustin "the Diamond" Poirier (27-6) on July 10th less than 6 months after their last battle.
Each fighter has added a KO to the other's loss column, but the score will be settled in grand fashion at the trilogy for the ages... (1-1)
This fight spawns two potential futures, one that sees a fallen king spiral off the mountaintop into the twilight of his career, and one that sees a third title run where Connor McGregor fulfills his promise to, "etch [his] name in history one more time... for the Irish people"
As it goes in this game... the future will reveal itself in due time, all we can do is sit back and enjoy the rivalry that is Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier.
UFC 178 September 2014
A Notorious victory, and in the words of the Diamond "the win Connor needed..." A match that from the beginning there was a clear difference in mental preparation.
With personal attacks leading up to the day of the fight, Mystic Mac was able to talk his way into Dustin's head and right out of the match.
Connor, then 3-0 was taking the UFC by storm... his path led him to the shaved headed, battle tested 9-3 Dustin Poirier.
Establishing position in the center of the ring... opening with a sweeping front heel kick followed by a spinning back kick just 10 seconds into the fight it was clear McGregor was not just there "to take part, but to take over."
After a few exchanges to feel each other out, the Notorious one started to dominate.., landing big lefts, mixing in kicks, maximizing his damage from a distance.
Dustin landed a few big shots, and even a couple of leg kicks in this fight; but 113 seconds in, Connor saw his opening, slid inside... landed a left hook rite behind the ear of Poirier, then dropped some hammer fists from the heavens.
Goat Herb Dean waved his hands, and it's all over...
With an instant Joe Rogan reaction, "nobody's ever done that to Poirier before..." silencing a stadium, who less than 30 seconds before was erupting in national pride cheering "U S A" in support of Poirier... the UFC was now on notice.
This win was the 2nd in a string of 5 knock outs for McGregor.. which was capped off with a step back, left to the jaw of then featherweight champion Jose Aldo, 13 seconds into the fight.
UFC 257 January 2021
6 years after the match that ignited this rivalry, a completely different pair of fighters entered the Octagon at UFC 257. A battle hardened Dustin Poirier with a refined MMA skillset, against a humbled, subdued, Connor McGregor with a boxing stance.
Nothing like the lead up to match one, the fighters joked, and complimented each other, trading whiskey for Hot Sauce, and Mystic Mac even promised to donate to The Good Fight Foundation, Dustin's Charity.
Before UFC 257, Dustin Poirier ran through the best the LightWeight Division has too offer, including Anthony Pettis, Justin Gathje, Eddie Alerez, Max Holloway, and Dan Hooker, only loosing to the bear they call Khabib.
In that time, Connor had also lost to Khabib, beat Donald Cerrone *who lost his 2 previous* in a tune up fight, boxed Floyd Mayweather, and started preparation for a boxing match against Manny Pacciao...
Not the best preparation for someone as elite as Poirier.
"He's knocked out Dustin before. Dustin has been more active though... activity always wins out" -Tyron Woodley
Bruce Buffer announced the main event, the two friendly foes touched gloves, and nothing... no spinning back kicks, no leaping roundhouse kicks, just a left, right, one, two... not the Conor I remember.
The two exchanged fast, calculated punches, with Poirier landing a leg kick in the first 15 seconds of the fight, and shooting his first take down just 30 seconds in; which McGregor stood up on, turned Poirier's back to the fence and delivered a solid shoulder strike to the nose.
The fight continued along the fence with Poirier getting the most of the control, tiring Conor out... but still Connor doing most of the damage, with the shoulder, the knee, some inside hooks and elbows.
Returning to the center of the octagon McGregor delivered a huge left, to the chin of poirier, to which Dustin responded by delivering a devastating calf kick.
Conor's corner told him the truth, he had a great round, and said to keep his lead hand active, never mentioning the leg kicks; while across the octagon Dustin's corner found the path to victory.
Out they came in round 2, with Conor throwing a straight jab and a 1.. 2, Dustin sat back in the pocket, and threw a kick at McGregor's knee so damn hard, it almost swept him off his feet.
Back and forth they went, McGregor delivering punch after punch to the head of Poirier, and Dustin returning fire with the leg kick, and a few punches of his own.
"He's dead in that leg already... we are in round number 2" -DC
As much as Conor can land, without a lead leg he's toast; the movement slowed, the hands dropped, the variety disappeared, and Dustin kept landing punches and kicks, looking much more comfortable than McGregor.
Taking one more big shot from McGregor, Poirier returned his final leg kick.. turned Conor back towards the cage, and started chucking bombs. Conor managed to slip the first two, but was finally caught with a left from Dustin that stumbled him.
An onslaught of rights and lefts were headed Conor's way, 14 of which connected by my count, before McGregor hit the mat, when two final hammer fists from Dustin Poirier sealed the deal.
Poirier with his hand raised, immediately knew that his next fight would be against the Irishman again... saying "okay, we're one and one..." letting the world know he's still hungry to have the edge on McGregor.
"I knew this was next... as i got to my hotel room that night. Ive kind of been preparing for [this] fight since that fight ended" -Dustin Poirier
Champ Champ
Old, washed, too rich, too slow, not hungry enough, the titles they love to throw around the moment an alien seems human.
Our greatest athletes of all time, are not those who are perfect through their career, they are the ones that are always in pursuit of improvement, they are the one's that sustain success, they are the ones that do it again!
As Rocky said "It's not about how hard you hit, its about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward."
Conor McGregor, undoubtedly took some damage, in his first knockout loss.... but with adjustments he can start another historic run cementing him in the goat talks amongst Jon Jones, GSP, Bj Penn, Jose Aldo and a few others.
McGregor, UFC's biggest star has fallen from the heavens, and has proven to be beatable in the octagon and the boxing ring, but these are the moments that make great careers, legendary.
Everyone loves a comeback story, Mystic Mac has the opportunity to avenge a knockout loss, and attempt to return to the peak of Mixed Martial Arts winning a Lightweight title fight against Charles Olivera...
That doesn't mean there aren't detractors, and haters, a huge chunk of the UFC fan base, and even fighters in the UFC, would love to witness the fall of the king on Saturday night...
Everyone's talking about the con man McGregor, he's washed up man. Conor's got nothing left in the tank. He doesn't wanna fight anymore but his pride just wont let him go." -Colby Covington
Conor's Keys
Key 1: Win the Leg Kick War
It's no secret that the key to Dustin's success in the second fight was the devastating, calculated leg kicks landed right beside the knee shutting off Conors lead leg, slowing him down and ultimately exposing him for Dustins knockout blow.
Conor's first adjustment in camp, must be the checking of leg kicks... if Conor proves early in the fight the leg kick will not be effective, Dustin will move on to the other tools in his arsenal.
In Conor's 2nd fight with Nate Diaz, he landed similar leg kicks repeatedly on Nate, slowing him down enough to get a win.
It is impossible to generate the power, or mobility required to be 100 percent in the ring when a leg is compromised.
The leg kick is an effective, underutilized tool in the MMA, this fight may come down too who can land more devastating blows to the legs.
Key 2: It starts with the Stance
The passed few years, Conor has enjoyed the perks of being the worlds most famous UFC fighter, and one of those perks was the ability to enter a completely different sport, Boxing.
Before McGregor fought Donald 'Cowboy' Cerrone, it had been been 4 years since his last UFC victory over Eddie Alverez in 2016.
In that time Conor, fought Khabib, got disassembled and put back together by that caged bear, as everyone does, fought the greatest boxer of our generation in Floyd Mayweather, and started training for Manny Pacciao BOTH BOXERS.
In this training, Conor picked up a boxing stance, one that doesn't transfer into a sport that allows leg kicks and wrestling. Although Connor has great wrestling defense, and has never allowed leg kicks to decapacitate him; Dustin Poirier was able to destroy his front leg and take him down with ease in the second leg of the trilogy.
In Conor's remarkable Champ Champ run he utilized an open agile Karate stance where his legs are able to explode in any direction at the drop of a dime.. in the 2nd Poirier Fight his legs are planted, sliding, and shuffling... like a boxer.
The hand positioning of his new stance, I wouldn't say is bad... just more defensive than the old stance, which was some combo of Karate, Naruto, and bare knuckle Irish brawlers.
“I think he (Conor) kind of lost something in his last fight. I think it was all the boxing that he was doing. He doesn’t have that movement anymore that you normally saw. Like when he fought Jose Aldo, it was the movement that won him that fight. And he was kind of standing there in front of Dustin Poirier, and he took a lot of low calf kicks, and that’s what settled it, sealed the deal.” -Stephen 'Wonderboy' Thompson
Key 3: Fight like the Irish
Connor's Signature style has propelled him to the highest heights of the sport, embodying the fighting Irish style and mentality.
At distance, Connor's arsenal of attack is as diverse as anyone who has ever gotten into the octagon.
Unfortunately his pursuit of money fights in the boxing world have changed his style, developed poor MMA habits, handcuffed his attack and defense, and made him less agile.
A simple change of stance theoretically will fix these issues and bring Connor back to his unpredictable, unorthodox, elite mixed martial arts fighting style.
Key 4: Kicks to the body
In all of Conors knockout victories *aside from the really quick ones, he has landed multiple leg kicks to the body, coming from all different angles, at all different speeds.
The unpredictability of just his kicks can change this fight, look at the difference from fight 1, where Conor came out firing with two different kicks to start the match... when in match 2, he was there to throw hands and that’s it.
It is essential to not just have skills across the Martial Arts spectrum, but to use all of your attacks, defense, grappling, striking techniques in strategic unison to take out a high level opponents like Dustin Poirier.
A one-dimensional attack with planted sliding feet like a boxer, helped give Dustin the opportunity to take Conor Down, land devastating legs kicks, while only having to defend punches.
Throwing kicks to the body, and mixing up the strikes, in a return to vintage Connor will be essential for Victory.
Key 5: Wait to drop the bomb
A perfectly placed, perfectly timed left hand from Connor McGregor, could flatline the crimson chin, let alone mere mortals in the octagon. But as with everything in this sport, blow your load too early, tip off your strikes, and the counter will be returned with twice the power... then you're the one staring at the lights.
The legend of Connor McGregor's left hand has a storied past, and has stopped title contenders and holders in their tracks. But the sheer power of the punch isn't the whole story.
As I've beaten into the ground, Connor's signature style can also take a part of the credit for how devastating the punch is. The unpredictability of the attacks Connor will throw, leaves fighters literally blindsided by a left hand that virtually appears out of thin air.
The key for Connor is to drop that bomb at the perfect moment, right when Dustin relaxes or drops his guard for even a second.
Key 6: Keep his distance
Space is a big part of Conor’s style, light on his feet McGregor has always had an advantage at distance. Like a cobra, he strikes and moves in a flash.
But with his newfound love of boxing, getting tied up, and exchanging inside is inevitable, but must be limited.
Dustin has deadly power from close range, but unless the leg kicks are landing he can’t touch Conor at distance.
If Conor McGregor reads these 6 keys, there is a 0 percent chance he looses on Sunday, so in fairness.... I have also determined Poirier's Path to victory.... if they both see this article, well see a blood bath.
The Diamond
Dustin Poirier is a fully polished MMA bread fighter, no one discipline, not jiu jitsu, not boxing, not wrestling, they are all elite weapons he possess, a true mixed martial artist.
The Diamond comes from Lafayette, Louisiana and dropped out of High School, so he can punch people in the face.
To say blue collar, would be an understatement the Diamond truly has earned his name through the path he has taken to the top of the lightweight division... coming back, time and time time again, and proving he deserves to be amongst the greats in that division.
The Diamond has a few notable names on his kill sheet including, Dan Hooker, Max Halloway, Anthony Pettis, Justin Gathje and of course his most recent victim Conor McGregor.
Losing in his first shot at adding the Undisputed LW Belt against Khabib, Poirier had touched UFC gold*, with an interim Lightweight Championship victory over Max Halloway in 2019. *cubic zirconia
He is seeking another chance at cementing his name, Dustin Poirier, into UFC History with back to back wins over Conor McGregor followed by a UFC Title Fight victory over Charles Olivera.
Dustins Path
Key 1: Win the Leg Kick War
Throw effective leg Kicks.... again..... obviously. If it ain't broke don't fix it!
I added 'effective to the first line because if Conor has made the change to check the leg kicks then Dustin must adapt and move on to the other weapons he has.
But if the leg kicks land, and do the damage they did in fight 2, then I wasted my damn time writing this article, and Dustin Poirier will advance easily to his title shot against Charles Olivera.
Poirier's leg kicks were placed and timed so perfectly on McGregor's planted lead leg, the maximum force possible was absorbed by Conor's knee and upper calf, rendering it useless.
If the kick proves effective early.... it will be a short, painful night the Notorious one...
Key 2: Take Conor into Deep Water
Dustin in fight 2, had not just the right idea, with the leg kicks, but he also took Conor down, pinned him against the cage, and was working to tire Conor out.
If the leg kicks aren't falling, and the match looks like it can go deep, Dustin must work to exhaust Conor and defend against the attacks. If Conor's punches aren't devastating, and Dustin is able to take him down and hold him their, come round five McGregor could be gassed.
Combined with his age.. the fact that he got knocked the fuck out less than 6 months ago, and his high energy style of fighting, Poirier may have the advantage in the deep end.
Key 3: Win the Brawl Inside
Dustin should seek to disrupt McGregor as much as possible, changing levels, attacking, getting close, applying pressure from the jump.
The path to victory for Poirier relies on his ability to tire Conor out, or alter to the fight to his benefit, if Conor can't get any space or time to be creative, and counter, Dustin can over power McGregor inside.
Dustin Poirier, must breakdown Conors defense and limit his movement to sneak inside and win the swing off, or gain control, and get McGregor to the ground.
If McGregor returns to the bouncing and jumping, and resumes throwing kicks and knees from borderline across the octagon, the Diamond must remain inside on Conor to handcuff those attacks.
Key 4: No Counters from Distance
By winning the brawl inside, Conor will try to claim his space, and gain distance by backing Dustin up, but even if it means taking a right hook to the jaw, it's better than a fully charged left hand from Mystic Mac
Conor McGregor has a 2 inch reach advantage, combined with his style its more like 4, If this fight stays upright and apart, as the two previous fights show, McGregor has a clear edge.
The longer Dustin boxes Conor the more danger he is in, the key is to keep this fight by the fence, on the ground in the clinch and close range exchanges.
Most of Conors biggest shots on dustin have been counters off of long straight punches from Poirier. Not just counters, just distance in general plays in to Conors hand, Dustin Poirier is a world class wrestler, and thrives, with head and body control, and has made a style of his own off owning the close range.
Key 5: Clinch and Takedowns
All this talk about McGregor's striking capabilities is white noise when McGregor is in the clinch, on the cage, or defending submissions and taking punches with his back on the mat.
Dustin Poirier, would be wise to return to form in the second fight, as he had 1 minute and 42 seconds of control time, and a takedown, in the roughly 7 minute match.
The clinch is the wrestlers best friend, tossing in some under hooks, is one of the most comfy places to be, and the head control battle should be where Dustin is generating a lot of his offense; peeling hooks off, and dropping in for take downs; Poirier should be attacking Conor at every different angle.
Key 6: Do it again...
The Diamond has done it once, just six months ago, the sixth key is that he does it again.
To slay the king once, improbable, to do it again, in such short time, borderline impossible... but this is martial arts, it's why they do it, to defy the odds, and win.
Dustin Poirier and his team had an unbelievable strategy, and executed it just about to perfection, they must do it again, to predict the adjustments Conor will make, and counter the endless arsenal that the Notorious one possesses.
It's no small feat, but Dustin Poirier now knows what it takes, the question is can he do it again?
The Lightweight Belt
After 29 MMA victories, including 13 UFC W's, with 0 professional losses.... And a reign that spanned 1044 days with 3 title defenses, Khabib Nurmegomedov, who will go down as one of, if not the most dominant UFC Fighters in history, has forfeited the belt in April of this year.
The current Lightweight title holder, Charles Olivera is awaiting the results of July 10th, just a bit more than the rest of us.
Won by Olivera, a veteran, over Michael Chandler in his second UFC fight, on May 15th, this belt has a storied past....
She has been held by, Khabib and Connor...obviously, but the division has had multiple 3 time title defenders, and undisputed legends of the sport like BJ Penn, Ben Henderson, and 732 Legend Frankie Edgar.
The winner of this weekends match will secure the next Lightweight Title Fight against the current champ Charles Olivera.
Whether it is McGregor or Poirier, the belt is on the move in the near future; whether it returns to Dublin or is finally secured for real by the American, not just as the interim champ....
We will know tomorrow night who has the opportunity to reach the mountaintop of Mixed Martial Arts, and fight for the Undisputed Lightweight Title.
PREDICTION
You probably have an idea of how I am leaning in this one, but as with all fights especially with two world class fighters anything can happen... Sgt. Pepper's Pick 🍀for the main event on July 10th at UFC 264 is that the Notorious Connor McGregor will win with a devastating left hand that drops Dustin Poirier to the canvas in round 3.
I believe Connor will make the necessary stance and strategic adjustments to not allow the leg kick to cause the damage it did at UFC 252, as well as open up his entire arsenal of attack.
There may be a slight advantage to Poirier going deeper into the fight, as he has been more active in the UFC and Connor's style drains a lot of energy, but if Connor can recapture the spirit of the fighting Irish, there isn't a fighter in the lightweight division who can beat him.
A turning point in the post-Khabib lightweight division, a fallen king has one last opportunity to spark a run that ends in a title being wrapped around his waist *at least with a simple path.* His opponent is a warrior that will fight to the death, but I ain't betting against the Irishman.
-Sgt. Pepper 🍀
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